Here’s my 2019/2020 season Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and…
Tag: Statistics
2018/19 Premier League Projection review
The table below shows a comparison of my model’s pre-season premier league points projection against the betting market (using Sporting Index’s pre-season mid-points price). My model performed well for the top 6, but overall the Sporting Index price performed better.
2018/19 Premier League Projection
Here’s my 2018/19 Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and against…
World cup 2018 preview 3 – name the finalists likelihood
Using my simulation model, these are the likelihoods of 2 given teams meeting in the final. The structure of the knock-out rounds means that there’s a lower likelihood of Germany v Spain or France v Brazil finals as they’re more likely to meet before the final (if they win their groups). Note: the probabilities are…
2018 World Cup preview 2 – Projected outcomes
Here’s my full projection for the 2018 FIFA World Cup This is a result of 5000 simulations, using my International ratings. I’ve put some notes about the methodology behind these below. International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a…
World Cup 2018 preview 1 – how goal patterns repeat in international tournaments
International football is a strange beast, for the period in-between tournaments it’s an irritating punctuation –offering sporadic qualifiers or sterile friendly matches – unwelcome to players, managers and fans alike. Yet international tournament football has a capacity to engage and unify unlike any other form of the game (or probably any other sport). International football…
Man C v Spurs Match modelling
Match modelling for Manc C v Spurs
2017/18 Premier League Preview
Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…
Penalty Shoot-outs – Why Ronaldo going 5th makes sense
Cristiano Ronaldo was vilified for choosing to take the 5th penalty in Portugal’s Confederations cup shoot-out against Chile, in the wake of defeat after missing their first 3 spot-kicks. Ronaldo didn’t get a chance to take one. The media based its derision on a view that Ronaldo was seeking glory by choosing to take the…
Assessing the model – the season so far
I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here in a good article by Pinnacle)….
Mick McCarthy’s magic method – 2016/17 Season update
Last November I wrote about the peculiar characteristics of Mick McCarthy’s tactical signature – copied below. In particular, his unusual ability to deliver results with a consistently minuscule pass success rate. So, how’s he faring this season? A quick look at the stats tables reveals that Ipswich are, yet again, bottom of the pass %…
Effective player assessment (and is Wayne Rooney really playing that badly?)
Quickly assessing the ability of individual players isn’t a particularly easy task; firstly because a player’s overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily the sum of a series of data points (goals, assists, passes, tackles etc) and secondly – good quality, manipulable, player-data is difficult to get hold of. There are a few good sources of Team data…
goal projection 