I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…
Month: January 2016
Why isn’t escalating revenue improving quality in the English Premier League?
Measured by European success the English Premier league is on the wane. As @KristianJack explained, from 2004 to 2009 12 out of the 20 Champions League semi-finalists were from the Premier League. Yet over the following 6 seasons only 3 of 24 semi-finalists were English. This apparent decline took place over a period when burgeoning…
The West Ham United conundrum
There’s a common consensus that the 2015 English premier league is unusually unpredictable. And to demonstrate this – an examination of the difference between teams’ actual points and those expected by the betting market reveals a number of teams that have significantly over or under performed. Using max odds from football-data.co.uk, expected points for a team…
Premier league possession
Premier League ordered by possession since 2009 Team Season start Possession% Points Position Manager 1 Arsenal 2011 60.1 70 3 Arsene Wenger 2 Arsenal 2010 59.9 68 4 Arsene Wenger 3 Arsenal 2009 59.5 75 3 Arsene Wenger 4 Chelsea 2009 59.3 86 1 Carlo Ancelotti 5 Man U 2014 58.8 70 4 Louis van Gaal…
Championship bang for buck – who gains most from transfer window investment?
Never before has the January transfer window presented such a financial temptation to Championship club owners. This is the last opportunity to try to improve promotion chances by investing in major squad changes – in hope of accessing the obscene £ millions handed-out in the English Premier League. Estimates vary, but a commonly quoted figure is…
goal projection 