League probability projections – why so volatile?

This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…

Championship bang for buck update

At the start of January I described how expected return on player investment has never been higher for Championship clubs, due to the inflated Premier League mega-millions bestowed for promotion. And that the group of clubs challenging for promotion below Middlesbrough had most to gain. Now the window’s closed it’s worth reviewing how things have…