Here’s my 2019/2020 season Premier League projection
I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”.
Adjusted goals for and against = 45.0%*Goals+2.8%*Shots+8.4%*Shots-on-target.
How is the 2019/20 projection calculated?
- Last season’s ratings
My starting point (and most important component) for estimating the relative team strength for this season is last year’s Adjusted Goals rating. This gives the following (after making adjustments for the promoted teams to take account of the higher standard of opposition).
2. Player turnover
This transfer widow is relatively muted compared with previous seasons, even so there have been some notable transfers (both in and out) that will inevitably affect teams’ strength compared with last season.
To assess the effect of player turnover, I adapt my Adjusted Goals rating to individual player level by trying to determine each player’s contribution to their team’s rating – taking account of attacking and defensive actions such as goals, assists, passes, tackles and blocks. Converting my team ratings to a player rating does have flaws, but it gives a reasonable indication of the effectiveness of new players.
[Note – this excludes any transfers after 4 August]
The table below shows incoming transfers I’ve accounted for. The biggest decline as a result of transfer activity is Chelsea (losing Hazard), although the introduction of Pulisic is positive for them.
3. European Competition
I’ve made adjustments for those involved in European Competition that weren’t last season (and vice versa). The logic being that European fixtures will be detrimental to Premier League performance. Wolves are the big loser here.