Hull City’s play-off final victory completes next season’s Premier League line-up. This means that I can run my first projection for the new season. I use my adjusted goals measure to rank teams (which is based on goals and shots). It’s solely retrospective, based on last seasons numbers – so, for example, makes no amendment for…
Month: May 2016
Reflections on a strange season
Now that the Premier League’s unscheduled foray into added time has finished, I’ve set out my reflections after 6 months of attempting to model outcomes (with varying degrees of success). The big picture First thing to note; it appears to have been a strange season. Leicester’s much written about (my attempt’s here) 5000-1 success is…
Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?
Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…
goal projection 