I prefer looking forwards rather than backwards. And it’s easy, with hindsight, to criticise government policies. But….every day UK lockdown was delayed caused a significant increase in COVID-19 deaths. The cost of the UK’s delayed lockdown is getting intensified scrutiny due to an article in the Sunday Times. Here’s my take, based on modelling. Lockdown…
Month: May 2020
USA COVID-19 forecast
I’ve adapted my model to forecast the impact of COVID-19 in the USA. Initially, I calibrated the model to fit the UK situation – but it’s built in a way to allow assumption changes appropriate for any geographic location. Forecasting the USA as a whole is tricky, because conditions vary so much across different states…
Evaluating the model
Having built a model to forecast the future progression of coronavirus in different geographical locations, and calibrated assumptions to match the UK experience, I regularly check the forecasts against reported figures. In the UK there are several different sources for coronavirus related data. The headline figures (those with greatest media focus) are published alongside the…
A mathematical case for masks
Small changes to coronavirus infection rates make a big difference to death rates. At a time when governments across the globe consider which policy tools can best reactivate economic activity – it’s worth evaluating how even small policy tweaks can help keep the death rate down. In my blog “How to relax lockdown without a…
goal projection 