Assessing the model – the season so far

I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here  in a good article by Pinnacle)….

Social Responsibility – Can the Betting Industry improve its image?

The Government’s recent call for evidence for its review of Gaming Machines and Social Responsibility Measures offers the UK betting industry an important opportunity to improve its image. Although the review relates primarily to gaming machines – it also considers the industry as a whole, particularly concerning social responsibility measures to minimise the risk of…

Mick McCarthy’s magic method – 2016/17 Season update

Last November I wrote about the peculiar characteristics of  Mick McCarthy’s tactical signature – copied below. In particular, his unusual ability to deliver results with a consistently minuscule pass success rate. So, how’s he faring this season?  A quick look at the stats tables reveals that Ipswich are, yet again, bottom of the pass %…

Effective player assessment (and is Wayne Rooney really playing that badly?)

Quickly assessing the ability of individual players isn’t a particularly easy task; firstly because a player’s overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily the sum of a series of data points (goals, assists, passes, tackles etc) and secondly – good quality, manipulable, player-data is difficult to get hold of. There are a few good sources of Team data…

A Magnificent Seven

After a magnificent seven Premier League match weeks, it’s that time when an unscrupulous and powerful organisation disturbs the peace by imposing its will on agitated locals – the horrific International Weekend. The Bounty Hunter This enforced hiatus already prompted one City to enlist the services of an American bounty hunter, to assemble a team…

Man United v Man City detailed modelling preview

Introduction Even early in the season, Saturday’s Manchester derby appears one of those matches that will have a significant bearing on the Premier League title. Added to this it’s the first meeting of the teams’ two new managerial behemoths – so it seems appropriate to give this game added scrutiny from a modelling point of view….

Bad Numbers

Simply placing the word “bad” before a dreary noun seemingly endows an intimidating edge, perfect for a Hollywood movie title; Santa, neighbours, teachers, moms, and even grandpa all get the formulaic comedy treatment. It’s Bad meaning bad-ass in a way that gets past the censor. Three games into the season, if only there was a…

Risk and Reward – managing your betting pot

So you’ve identified a value betting opportunity – how much do you wager? The answer will probably make or break your chances of long-term success. Even if you consistently spot genuine value, the capricious nature of chance dictates that undisciplined staking is the road to ruin. Yet, whilst there are no guarantees in the fickle…

Sam Allardyce – the sensible choice?

My view of Sam Allardyce is heavily influenced by the most exciting match I’ve ever watched. Ipswich’s 5-3 (AET) defeat of Bolton in a play-off semi final in May 2000. A match memorable not only for Jim Magilton’s heroic hat-trick, but also the fact that Bolton managed to concede 3 penalties and receive 2 red…

Euro 2016 modelling review

So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…

Euro 2016 – Assessing international teams

International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a variety of conditions, negligible relevant data is available for international football. It is, by its nature infrequent – so tournament line-ups may bear little resemblance to those of previous matches –…

Reflections on a strange season

Now that the Premier League’s unscheduled foray into added time has finished, I’ve set out my reflections after 6 months of attempting to model outcomes (with varying degrees of success). The big picture First thing to note; it appears to have been a strange season. Leicester’s much written about (my attempt’s here) 5000-1 success is…