I’ve mapped out England’s potential routes to the World Cup final using my goalprojection model. The chart shows the likelihood of England playing in each knockout match, together with their most likely opponent (if they played in that match). Hopefully, it helps plan late-night alarms or which mornings to book off work.

Winning Group L looks like the best outcome for England, despite a potential matchup with Mexico at the Azteca Stadium (1am UK time), and a quarter-final against Brazil in Miami. Coming second in Group L likely puts England in the same quarter as Spain (the second-best team in the tournament according to the model).

In the event that England finish third and qualify (the best eight 3rd-place teams qualify for the knockout matches), they would likely face Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in the round of 32 (Kansas City, 2.30am kick-off). Another late night awaits should England progress through this quarter, with a potential match against Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the quarter-final with a 2.00am kick-off (at Kansas City again).

My model rates France as the tournament’s strongest team. Fortunately, if France win their group, then England cannot face them until the semi-finals. Qualifying in first, second, or third place would put England in a different quarter than a first-placed France.

I’ll update the potential paths as the tournament continues.