Projection based on adjusted goals ratings
Category: Projections
Euro 2020 projection
Forecasting international tournaments is tricky, because it’s difficult to robustly assess the relative strengths of the competing teams. Unlike league football, we only have a small sample of recent international matches to use for analysis – and these are far from perfect, because of the differing strengths of opponents, the mix of competitive and friendly…
USA COVID-19 forecast
I’ve adapted my model to forecast the impact of COVID-19 in the USA. Initially, I calibrated the model to fit the UK situation – but it’s built in a way to allow assumption changes appropriate for any geographic location. Forecasting the USA as a whole is tricky, because conditions vary so much across different states…
2019/2020 Premier League Projection
Here’s my 2019/2020 season Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and…
2018/19 Premier League Projection review
The table below shows a comparison of my model’s pre-season premier league points projection against the betting market (using Sporting Index’s pre-season mid-points price). My model performed well for the top 6, but overall the Sporting Index price performed better.
2018 World Cup preview 2 – Projected outcomes
Here’s my full projection for the 2018 FIFA World Cup This is a result of 5000 simulations, using my International ratings. I’ve put some notes about the methodology behind these below. International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a…
2017/18 Premier League Preview
Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…
La Liga 2016/17 Projection
La Liga 2016/17 projection, modelled solely using adjusted goal ratings (i.e. only uses retrospective data) Expected points
2016/17 Premier League Projection – Value in Spurs
After reviewing the impact of close season activity for each Premier League team, I’m now in a position to compile my first projection for the 2016/17 season. Unlike last year I have made some adjustment for each club’s player turnover. I’ve also made an allowance for the impact of teams’ participation in European Competition compared…
Championship 2016/17 Projection
The Championship starts tomorrow. It should be a fascinating season, with two erstwhile Premier League giants and Norwich joining from the top division, first-timers Burton, and clashes between former European Champions and former Champions League winning managers. I’ve run the numbers through my projection model (using my adjusted goals rating system) and it’s produced the following…
Euro 2016 – full projection
After creating attack and defence ratings for the 24 Euro 2016 teams, based on their underlying squad strength (as described here), I can run simulations to look at the likelihood of different tournament outcomes, including the winner. My projection simulates the score of each match for 5000 different possible tournament outcomes – including potential extra time…
goal projection 