2017/18 Premier League Preview

Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…

La Liga 2016/17 Projection

La Liga 2016/17 projection, modelled solely using adjusted goal ratings (i.e. only uses retrospective data) Expected points

2016/17 Premier League Projection – Value in Spurs

After reviewing the impact of close season activity for each Premier League team, I’m now in a position to compile my first projection for the 2016/17 season. Unlike last year I have made some adjustment for each club’s player turnover. I’ve also made an allowance for the impact of teams’ participation in European Competition compared…

Championship 2016/17 Projection

The Championship starts tomorrow. It should be a fascinating season, with two erstwhile Premier League giants and Norwich joining from the top division, first-timers Burton, and clashes between former European Champions and former Champions League winning managers. I’ve run the numbers through my projection model (using my adjusted goals rating system) and it’s produced the following…

Euro 2016 – full projection

After creating attack and defence ratings for the 24 Euro 2016 teams, based on their underlying squad strength (as described here), I can run simulations to look at the likelihood of different tournament outcomes, including the winner. My projection simulates the score of each match for 5000 different possible tournament outcomes – including potential extra time…

2016/17 Premier League projection

Hull City’s play-off final victory completes next season’s Premier League line-up. This means that I can run my first projection for the new season. I use my adjusted goals measure to rank teams (which is based on goals and shots). It’s solely retrospective, based on last seasons numbers – so, for example, makes no amendment for…

Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?

Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…

League probability projections – why so volatile?

This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…

Championship projection at 9/12/2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using the rand() random number function to generate goals for and against –…

EPL projection 8 December 2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. Below are projections for the English Premier League at 8 December 2015. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using…