Recent data demonstrates the UK is likely past the peak of new coronavirus infections. The lockdown has done its job. Now the UK, and other countries, are contemplating strategies to relax lockdowns and revive economic activity. But it’s a tricky balancing act – because weakening restrictions too much risks a second peak of infections and…
Month: April 2020
Building a pandemic model from scratch
Introduction The coronavirus pandemic has thrust forecasting models into the mainstream spotlight. They’re now recognised as essential tools to guide government policies that could prevent or cause many thousands of deaths. Whilst it’s reassuring that such grave political decisions are influenced by models built by experts, there’s a lack of transparency about assumptions and potential…
goal projection 