The key starting point is to assess the relative strength of the competing nations. We all know that France, Spain and Argentina are good. But how good are they compared to Curaçao and Cape Verde? Unlike club teams, which regularly play competitive matches against teams of comparable quality, it’s difficult to robustly quantify international teams’…
Month: June 2026
World Cup Group Projections
Forecasting the World Cup groups based on 20,000 simulations of my goalprojection World Cup model
England’s path to World Cup glory
I’ve mapped out England’s potential routes to the World Cup final using my goalprojection model. The chart shows the likelihood of England playing in each knockout match, together with their most likely opponent (if they played in that match). Hopefully, it helps plan late-night alarms or which mornings to book off work. Winning Group L…
2026 World Cup Projection – so many teams!
I’ve finally completed my 2026 World Cup projection model, incorporating 485 permutations for 3rd-placed teams to simulate the last 32 matches. These are the likelihoods from 20,000 simulations. France are favourites, and it has given England a surprisingly decent chance.
goal projection 