The decision to increase the European Championship participants from 16 to an inefficient 24 brings us a convoluted system to pair teams for the first knock-out round. This excerpt from UEFA’s tournament rules (kind of) explains how 24 is transformed to 16 by pairing 4 third placed teams (with the best record) against group winners….
Month: March 2016
Assessing the model 20/03/2016
I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…
The West Ham Conundrum – updated
In January I queried why West Ham United are valued so poorly by bookie’s odds. A month and a half later it’s still happening. Each week I calculate probabilities for Premier League match outcomes using a model based on goals, shots and shots on target – and compare these against bookies odds. They’re normally pretty…
goal projection 