World cup 2018 preview 3 – name the finalists likelihood

Using my simulation model, these are the likelihoods of 2 given teams meeting in the final. The structure of the knock-out rounds means that there’s a lower likelihood of Germany v Spain or France v Brazil finals as they’re more likely to meet before the final (if they win their groups).

finalists

Note: the probabilities are slightly different to my full World Cup projection, as it’s a different set of 5000 simulations

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