Model Reflections part 1

As the curtain falls on another Premier League season, leaving only sporadic finals and tired internationals, to be followed by the football-free wasteland of summer sport that happens in a year ending in an odd number – it offers a great chance to reflect on and review prediction models. This is the first part of…

EPL Match week 31 – Value?

I’m using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value. For this season I’m also recording value bets, based on…

EPL Week 29 – Value?

I’m using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value. For this season I’m also recording value bets, based on…

Could Ipswich be relegated?

The 2016/17 season is shaping up to be one of the least memorable in Town’s history. A season where the club’s lack of investment is cruelly exposed – seemingly petering out to a bottom-half, but safe, finish. February brought a fleeting upturn in form – delivering draws, that could have been wins, against accomplished opposition,…

EPL Match week 28 – Value?

  I’m using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value. For this season I’m also recording value bets, based…

The subtleties of Asian handicap betting

I’ve always had an aversion to Asian handicap betting, simply because the outcome isn’t intuitive. For example – a bet on Middlesbrough to beat Spurs is immediately understandable, a bet on Middlesbrough to beat Spurs with a handicap of 0.75 isn’t. However – there are circumstances where Asian handicap (AH) odds can be more attractive…

Championship 24/02/17 -value?

After modelling Premier League probabilities for matches throughout this season, which have proven a fairly good estimate of outcome likelihood,  I’ve started applying the same method to Championship matches. However, these may take some time to refine, to better take account of any differences between the two leagues. Here’s what I’ve got for this weekend, comparing…