Projection based on adjusted goals ratings
Euro 2020 projection
Forecasting international tournaments is tricky, because it’s difficult to robustly assess the relative strengths of the competing teams. Unlike league football, we only have a small sample of recent international matches to use for analysis – and these are far from perfect, because of the differing strengths of opponents, the mix of competitive and friendly…
Cook’s Cast-offs – are they any good?
Is Paul Cook’s widely reported rejection of the majority of the Ipswich Town squad justified? After this most dismal of seasons, where the team somehow managed worsen after he replaced the hapless Paul Lambert – it’s easy to sympathise. Things haven’t been working effectively at Town for years. But is wholesale change the right strategy…
UK COVID-19 Forecast update
This is my forecast of UK COVID-19 deaths based on the England lockdown relaxation timetable. It’s more difficult to forecast now with impact of vaccines and new variants introducing more uncertainty. The outcome is highly dependent on the success of vaccine rollout, but it’s looking positive. If vaccines are effective at reducing transmission then R…
The human cost of delayed UK lockdown
I prefer looking forwards rather than backwards. And it’s easy, with hindsight, to criticise government policies. But….every day UK lockdown was delayed caused a significant increase in COVID-19 deaths. The cost of the UK’s delayed lockdown is getting intensified scrutiny due to an article in the Sunday Times. Here’s my take, based on modelling. Lockdown…
USA COVID-19 forecast
I’ve adapted my model to forecast the impact of COVID-19 in the USA. Initially, I calibrated the model to fit the UK situation – but it’s built in a way to allow assumption changes appropriate for any geographic location. Forecasting the USA as a whole is tricky, because conditions vary so much across different states…
Evaluating the model
Having built a model to forecast the future progression of coronavirus in different geographical locations, and calibrated assumptions to match the UK experience, I regularly check the forecasts against reported figures. In the UK there are several different sources for coronavirus related data. The headline figures (those with greatest media focus) are published alongside the…
A mathematical case for masks
Small changes to coronavirus infection rates make a big difference to death rates. At a time when governments across the globe consider which policy tools can best reactivate economic activity – it’s worth evaluating how even small policy tweaks can help keep the death rate down. In my blog “How to relax lockdown without a…
How to relax lockdown without a second peak
Recent data demonstrates the UK is likely past the peak of new coronavirus infections. The lockdown has done its job. Now the UK, and other countries, are contemplating strategies to relax lockdowns and revive economic activity. But it’s a tricky balancing act – because weakening restrictions too much risks a second peak of infections and…
Building a pandemic model from scratch
Introduction The coronavirus pandemic has thrust forecasting models into the mainstream spotlight. They’re now recognised as essential tools to guide government policies that could prevent or cause many thousands of deaths. Whilst it’s reassuring that such grave political decisions are influenced by models built by experts, there’s a lack of transparency about assumptions and potential…
2019/2020 Premier League Projection
Here’s my 2019/2020 season Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and…
2018/19 Premier League Projection review
The table below shows a comparison of my model’s pre-season premier league points projection against the betting market (using Sporting Index’s pre-season mid-points price). My model performed well for the top 6, but overall the Sporting Index price performed better.
goal projection 