Championship 24/02/17 -value?

After modelling Premier League probabilities for matches throughout this season, which have proven a fairly good estimate of outcome likelihood,  I’ve started applying the same method to Championship matches. However, these may take some time to refine, to better take account of any differences between the two leagues. Here’s what I’ve got for this weekend, comparing…

EPL Match week 26 – Value?

I’m using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value. For this season I’m also recording value bets, based on…

EPL Match week 25 – value?

I’m using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value. For this season I’m also recording value bets, based on…

EPL Match week 24 – Value?

I’m now using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the relative potential value in different matches, taking account of risk.  Note: Negative Kelly percentages indicate negative value.

EPL Match week 23 – Value?

After an enforced break for match week 22 my PC is up and running again – here’s my probabilities and potential value for match week 23. I’m now using Kelly Stake to indicate value – explained in this article. As discussed, using full Kelly stake is a dangerous strategy, but nevertheless it’s good for demonstrating the…

EPL Match week 17 value?

    I’m posting “tips” based on my modelling at https://tipstrr.com/tipster/goalprojectionpremierleague