2018/19 Premier League Projection

Here’s my 2018/19 Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and against…

World cup 2018 preview 3 – name the finalists likelihood

Using my simulation model, these are the likelihoods of 2 given teams meeting in the final. The structure of the knock-out rounds means that there’s a lower likelihood of Germany v Spain or France v Brazil finals as they’re more likely to meet before the final (if they win their groups). Note: the probabilities are…

2018 World Cup preview 2 – Projected outcomes

Here’s my full projection for the 2018 FIFA World Cup This is a result of 5000 simulations, using my International ratings. I’ve put some notes about the methodology behind these below. International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a…

World Cup 2018 preview 1 – how goal patterns repeat in international tournaments

International football is a strange beast, for the period in-between tournaments it’s an irritating punctuation –offering sporadic qualifiers or sterile friendly matches – unwelcome to players, managers and fans alike. Yet international tournament football has a capacity to engage and unify unlike any other form of the game (or probably any other sport). International football…

Too much information!

One of the key necessities for predicting a match outcome is determining which information is relevant and which isn’t.  Nowadays there are abundant sources of football data, which can help better model the likelihood of a particular event happening. It’s certainly vastly better than 20 or 30 years ago, when the league table was pretty…

2017/18 Premier League Preview

Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…

Penalty Shoot-outs – Why Ronaldo going 5th makes sense

Cristiano Ronaldo was vilified for choosing to take the 5th penalty in Portugal’s Confederations cup shoot-out against Chile, in the wake of defeat after missing their first 3 spot-kicks.  Ronaldo didn’t get a chance to take one. The media based its derision on a view that Ronaldo was seeking glory by choosing to take the…

Desperate data – the extreme numbers that defined Ipswich Town’s dismal season

Think Ipswich Town’s 2016/17 Championship record redefined tedium? Think again. Despite a low mid-table finish, set against a background of increasing supporter discontent at insipid management and directionless ownership – Town actually topped (or tailed) the league for many key attributes. Not the characteristics of a mundane team. First up, passing. Nothing defines a Mick…

Model reflections – part 2, individual matches

Part 2 of my 2016/17 model analysis looks at the performance of individual match modelling. Throughout the season I’ve used my adjusted goals rating assessment to generate probabilities for each match to test its effectiveness. I’ve analysed probabilities generated purely from the model (i.e. based solely on retrospective shots and goals data), and also probabilities…

Model Reflections part 1

As the curtain falls on another Premier League season, leaving only sporadic finals and tired internationals, to be followed by the football-free wasteland of summer sport that happens in a year ending in an odd number – it offers a great chance to reflect on and review prediction models. This is the first part of…

Could Ipswich be relegated?

The 2016/17 season is shaping up to be one of the least memorable in Town’s history. A season where the club’s lack of investment is cruelly exposed – seemingly petering out to a bottom-half, but safe, finish. February brought a fleeting upturn in form – delivering draws, that could have been wins, against accomplished opposition,…