I’ve finally completed my 2026 World Cup projection model, incorporating 485 permutations for 3rd-placed teams to simulate the last 32 matches. These are the likelihoods from 20,000 simulations. France are favourites, and it has given England a surprisingly decent chance.
League of Giants – 2023/24 Championship Preview and Projection
Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton were never meant to go down. FA Cup victors two years ago, only six years since winning the Premier League, Leicester City’s squad was brimming with superstars, including the league’s in-form player – James Maddison, the supposed mercurial wildcard to ignite England’s 2022 World Cup assault. Yet somehow, they…
Dark Swans
In March 2023 I independently published my first book – Dark Swans: A haunting techno-thriller. This was my first venture into the world of self-publishing. After a career in financial services I fancied trying something completely different. The whole process was fascinating, from researching writing craft, choosing a cover designer and editor, formatting, project management…
Premier League projection for 2021/22 season
Projection based on adjusted goals ratings
Euro 2020 projection
Forecasting international tournaments is tricky, because it’s difficult to robustly assess the relative strengths of the competing teams. Unlike league football, we only have a small sample of recent international matches to use for analysis – and these are far from perfect, because of the differing strengths of opponents, the mix of competitive and friendly…
Cook’s Cast-offs – are they any good?
Is Paul Cook’s widely reported rejection of the majority of the Ipswich Town squad justified? After this most dismal of seasons, where the team somehow managed worsen after he replaced the hapless Paul Lambert – it’s easy to sympathise. Things haven’t been working effectively at Town for years. But is wholesale change the right strategy…
UK COVID-19 Forecast update
This is my forecast of UK COVID-19 deaths based on the England lockdown relaxation timetable. It’s more difficult to forecast now with impact of vaccines and new variants introducing more uncertainty. The outcome is highly dependent on the success of vaccine rollout, but it’s looking positive. If vaccines are effective at reducing transmission then R…
The human cost of delayed UK lockdown
I prefer looking forwards rather than backwards. And it’s easy, with hindsight, to criticise government policies. But….every day UK lockdown was delayed caused a significant increase in COVID-19 deaths. The cost of the UK’s delayed lockdown is getting intensified scrutiny due to an article in the Sunday Times. Here’s my take, based on modelling. Lockdown…
USA COVID-19 forecast
I’ve adapted my model to forecast the impact of COVID-19 in the USA. Initially, I calibrated the model to fit the UK situation – but it’s built in a way to allow assumption changes appropriate for any geographic location. Forecasting the USA as a whole is tricky, because conditions vary so much across different states…
Evaluating the model
Having built a model to forecast the future progression of coronavirus in different geographical locations, and calibrated assumptions to match the UK experience, I regularly check the forecasts against reported figures. In the UK there are several different sources for coronavirus related data. The headline figures (those with greatest media focus) are published alongside the…
A mathematical case for masks
Small changes to coronavirus infection rates make a big difference to death rates. At a time when governments across the globe consider which policy tools can best reactivate economic activity – it’s worth evaluating how even small policy tweaks can help keep the death rate down. In my blog “How to relax lockdown without a…
How to relax lockdown without a second peak
Recent data demonstrates the UK is likely past the peak of new coronavirus infections. The lockdown has done its job. Now the UK, and other countries, are contemplating strategies to relax lockdowns and revive economic activity. But it’s a tricky balancing act – because weakening restrictions too much risks a second peak of infections and…
goal projection 