Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?

Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…

The shifting demographic order of English Premier League clubs

Three big clubs occupy the Premier League’s relegation places. Villa are down, Newcastle almost there, with only Sunderland still clinging to slim survival chances. What causes these footballing behemoths to struggle when so many seemingly smaller clubs thrive in the modern football world? These clubs really are big. Using most measures of bigness – they…

Assessing the model 20/03/2016

I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…

The West Ham Conundrum – updated

In January I queried why West Ham United are valued so poorly by bookie’s odds. A month and a half later it’s still happening. Each week I calculate probabilities for Premier League match outcomes using a model based on goals, shots and shots on target – and compare these against bookies odds. They’re normally pretty…

League probability projections – why so volatile?

This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…

Championship bang for buck update

At the start of January I described how expected return on player investment has never been higher for Championship clubs, due to the inflated Premier League mega-millions bestowed for promotion. And that the group of clubs challenging for promotion below Middlesbrough had most to gain. Now the window’s closed it’s worth reviewing how things have…

Assessing the model

I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…

The West Ham United conundrum

There’s a common consensus that the 2015 English premier league is unusually unpredictable. And to demonstrate this – an examination of the difference between teams’ actual points and those expected by the betting market reveals a number of teams that have significantly over or under performed. Using max odds from football-data.co.uk, expected points for a team…

Premier league possession

Premier League ordered by possession since 2009 Team Season start Possession% Points Position Manager 1 Arsenal 2011 60.1 70 3 Arsene Wenger 2 Arsenal 2010 59.9 68 4 Arsene Wenger 3 Arsenal 2009 59.5 75 3 Arsene Wenger 4 Chelsea 2009 59.3 86 1 Carlo Ancelotti 5 Man U 2014 58.8 70 4 Louis van Gaal…

Championship bang for buck – who gains most from transfer window investment?

Never before has the January transfer window presented such a financial temptation to Championship club owners. This is the last opportunity to try to improve promotion chances by investing in major squad changes – in hope of accessing the obscene £ millions handed-out in the English Premier League. Estimates vary, but a commonly quoted figure is…

EPL Half time report. Unpredictability and the quiet rise of Spurs.

With the Premier League neatly poised at its 190 match mid-point it’s a good time to take stock of where things are. I use my Adjusted Goals rating measure to assess teams’ performance. This isn’t anything too complicated – it’s simply uses a combination of goals, shots on target and shots to rate each team’s…