With fewer than 2 weeks to go until the start of the 2016/17 Premier League I’m starting to compile my season projections. Where to start? The best place is usually the previous season, and this applies in the Premier League more than any other – with extraordinarily high correlation between consecutive seasons. As the graph…
Tag: Statistics
Risk and Reward – managing your betting pot
So you’ve identified a value betting opportunity – how much do you wager? The answer will probably make or break your chances of long-term success. Even if you consistently spot genuine value, the capricious nature of chance dictates that undisciplined staking is the road to ruin. Yet, whilst there are no guarantees in the fickle…
Euro 2016 modelling review
So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…
Euro 2016 – Third round of group matches, assessing the model
Just 22 goals were scored in the final round of group matches, averaging 1.8 per game. Group F provided the only incentive fuelled high scoring denouement. Perhaps the 24 team structure generated more caution than usual for the final group matches, as this is historically the highest scoring stage of a tournament. As a result my model overestimated the number of goals…
Euro 2016 – Second round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the scoring rate has increased in the second round of group matches, to 2.1 from 1.8 per game in the first round of matches. This reflects the need of some teams to eschew their initial caution. Even so, scoring rate is still historically low, in previous tournaments the average rate for the second round has been at…
Euro 2016 – first round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the first round of group matches has been low scoring, with an average of 1.83 goals per game, this is even lower than the historical average 2.10. Strangely though we haven’t seen a 0-0 draw, with match results clustered around a few outcomes: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1. My model expected a total of 25.6 goals…
Euro 2016 by charts
Squad strength This chart segments squads into strength of the club teams they play for. I’ve used Euro Club index to determine the best teams. The top 6 ranked teams (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Paris Saint Germain and Juventus) are categorised as “elite” teams, the remaining top 25 teams as “good”, and any other club in the…
Assessing the model
I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…
Why isn’t escalating revenue improving quality in the English Premier League?
Measured by European success the English Premier league is on the wane. As @KristianJack explained, from 2004 to 2009 12 out of the 20 Champions League semi-finalists were from the Premier League. Yet over the following 6 seasons only 3 of 24 semi-finalists were English. This apparent decline took place over a period when burgeoning…
Mick McCarthy’s Magic Method
In the modern football world, most match reports are adorned by a plethora of stats that may (or may not) tell us something extra about the relative performance of each team – e.g. BBC reports show shots, shots on target, possession and fouls. Specialist sites like whoscored.com and Squawka allow those of a nerdy persuasion…
goal projection 