I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take account of – such as injuries, change of tactics, new signings, players transferring out, new manager, new owner, fixture congestion or off the field problems.

So, these aren’t betting tips but an attempt to assess whether and how the market is adjusting for certain factors – which in turn might identify potential value. Even so it’s worthwhile to test the model against the market. I do this by comparing odds against maximum odds on football-data.co.uk.

There are many ways to determine which match to bet on when using a ratings model, but for this assessment I compare against the odds for the match favourite to determine value. If the difference between my model’s probability and 1/odds is 2% or more I assume a unit bet for the favourite, if the difference is -2% or less I assume risking a unit to lay the favourite.

For the 2015/16 Premier League season the summary of results is a follows:

	Bet	Return	Yield
Bet H	66	-12.79	-19.4%
Bet A	6	-0.82	-13.7%
Lay H	47	29.26	62.3%
Lay A	52	1.42	2.7%
Total	171	17.07	10.0%

 

Goals	Bet	Return	%
> 2.5	63.00	5.60	9%
<2.5	50.00	-0.86	-2%
Total	113.00	4.74	4.2%

Overall, pleasingly, so far the model outperforms the market. But that’s not to say it always will (it doesn’t every season). And, it’s been a strange season where the market has poorly estimated true probability. Infact a bet on every outcome, at best market odds, would yield 9% – this is unusual. Also, always be wary of a rating system performing too well as I explain here.

EPL Unit bet on every outcome
	Bet	Ret	%
H	230	-19.33	-8%
D	230	21.33	9%
A	230	60.57	26%
Total	690	62.57	9%
> 2.5	230	3.90	2%
<2.5	230	-7.52	-3%
Total	460	-4	-1%
Using football-data.co.uk max odds

It’s interesting which teams over and underperform the market – my model has consistently identified value in betting for West Ham and against Chelsea but adjusted poorly for Spurs and Leicester’s form improvement since last season.

Individual team results

 Individual match results

Date	Match	Score	Bet	Return
08/08/2015	Bournemouth v Aston Villa	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
08/08/2015	Chelsea v Swansea	2 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
08/08/2015	Everton v Watford	2 – 2	No bet	0.00
08/08/2015	Leicester v Sunderland	4 – 2	Bet H	1.03
08/08/2015	Man United v Tottenham	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
08/08/2015	Norwich v Crystal Palace	1 – 3	Bet H	-1.00
09/08/2015	Arsenal v West Ham	0 – 2	No bet	0.00
09/08/2015	Newcastle v Southampton	2 – 2	Bet A	-1.00
09/08/2015	Stoke v Liverpool	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
10/08/2015	West Brom v Man City	0 – 3	Bet A	0.72
14/08/2015	Aston Villa v Man United	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
15/08/2015	Southampton v Everton	0 – 3	Bet H	-1.00
15/08/2015	Sunderland v Norwich	1 – 3	Lay H	0.65
15/08/2015	Swansea v Newcastle	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
15/08/2015	Tottenham v Stoke	2 – 2	Lay H	1.22
15/08/2015	Watford v West Brom	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
15/08/2015	West Ham v Leicester	1 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
16/08/2015	Crystal Palace v Arsenal	1 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
16/08/2015	Man City v Chelsea	3 – 0	Bet H	1.17
17/08/2015	Liverpool v Bournemouth	1 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
22/08/2015	Crystal Palace v Aston Villa	2 – 1	No bet	0.00
22/08/2015	Leicester v Tottenham	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
22/08/2015	Man United v Newcastle	0 – 0	Lay H	2.50
22/08/2015	Norwich v Stoke	1 – 1	Lay H	0.72
22/08/2015	Sunderland v Swansea	1 – 1	Lay A	0.92
22/08/2015	West Ham v Bournemouth	3 – 4	No bet	0.00
23/08/2015	Everton v Man City	0 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
23/08/2015	Watford v Southampton	0 – 0	Lay H	0.56
23/08/2015	West Brom v Chelsea	2 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
24/08/2015	Arsenal v Liverpool	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
29/08/2015	Aston Villa v Sunderland	2 – 2	Lay H	1.08
29/08/2015	Bournemouth v Leicester	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
29/08/2015	Chelsea v Crystal Palace	1 – 2	Lay H	2.56
29/08/2015	Liverpool v West Ham	0 – 3	Lay H	2.57
29/08/2015	Man City v Watford	2 – 0	Bet H	0.25
29/08/2015	Newcastle v Arsenal	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
29/08/2015	Stoke v West Brom	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
29/08/2015	Tottenham v Everton	0 – 0	Lay H	1.00
30/08/2015	Southampton v Norwich	3 – 0	Bet H	1.07
30/08/2015	Swansea v Man United	2 – 1	Lay A	0.80
12/09/2015	Arsenal v Stoke	2 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
12/09/2015	Crystal Palace v Man City	0 – 1	No bet	0.00
12/09/2015	Everton v Chelsea	3 – 1	Lay A	0.95
12/09/2015	Man United v Liverpool	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
12/09/2015	Norwich v Bournemouth	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
12/09/2015	Watford v Swansea	1 – 0	Bet H	1.77
12/09/2015	West Brom v Southampton	0 – 0	Bet A	-1.00
13/09/2015	Leicester v Aston Villa	3 – 2	No bet	0.00
13/09/2015	Sunderland v Tottenham	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
14/09/2015	West Ham v Newcastle	2 – 0	Bet H	1.27
19/09/2015	Aston Villa v West Brom	0 – 1	No bet	0.00
19/09/2015	Bournemouth v Sunderland	2 – 0	Bet H	0.75
19/09/2015	Chelsea v Arsenal	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
19/09/2015	Man City v West Ham	1 – 2	No bet	0.00
19/09/2015	Newcastle v Watford	1 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
19/09/2015	Stoke v Leicester	2 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
19/09/2015	Swansea v Everton	0 – 0	Lay H	0.72
20/09/2015	Liverpool v Norwich	1 – 1	Lay H	1.44
20/09/2015	Southampton v Man United	2 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
20/09/2015	Tottenham v Crystal Palace	1 – 0	Bet H	1.02
26/09/2015	Leicester v Arsenal	2 – 5	Lay A	-1.00
26/09/2015	Liverpool v Aston Villa	3 – 2	No bet	0.00
26/09/2015	Man United v Sunderland	3 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
26/09/2015	Newcastle v Chelsea	2 – 2	Lay A	1.49
26/09/2015	Southampton v Swansea	3 – 1	Bet H	1.20
26/09/2015	Stoke v Bournemouth	2 – 1	Bet H	1.60
26/09/2015	Tottenham v Man City	4 – 1	No bet	0.00
26/09/2015	West Ham v Norwich	2 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
27/09/2015	Watford v Crystal Palace	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
28/09/2015	West Brom v Everton	2 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
03/10/2015	Aston Villa v Stoke	0 – 1	Lay H	0.63
03/10/2015	Bournemouth v Watford	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
03/10/2015	Chelsea v Southampton	1 – 3	Lay H	1.20
03/10/2015	Crystal Palace v West Brom	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
03/10/2015	Man City v Newcastle	6 – 1	Bet H	0.26
03/10/2015	Norwich v Leicester	1 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
03/10/2015	Sunderland v West Ham	2 – 2	No bet	0.00
04/10/2015	Arsenal v Man United	3 – 0	Bet H	1.10
04/10/2015	Everton v Liverpool	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
04/10/2015	Swansea v Tottenham	2 – 2	No bet	0.00
17/10/2015	Chelsea v Aston Villa	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
17/10/2015	Crystal Palace v West Ham	1 – 3	Lay H	0.94
17/10/2015	Everton v Man United	0 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
17/10/2015	Man City v Bournemouth	5 – 1	Bet H	0.36
17/10/2015	Southampton v Leicester	2 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
17/10/2015	Tottenham v Liverpool	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
17/10/2015	Watford v Arsenal	0 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
17/10/2015	West Brom v Sunderland	1 – 0	Bet H	1.10
18/10/2015	Newcastle v Norwich	6 – 2	No bet	0.00
19/10/2015	Swansea v Stoke	0 – 1	Lay H	0.91
24/10/2015	Arsenal v Everton	2 – 1	No bet	0.00
24/10/2015	Aston Villa v Swansea	1 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
24/10/2015	Leicester v Crystal Palace	1 – 0	Bet H	1.30
24/10/2015	Norwich v West Brom	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
24/10/2015	Stoke v Watford	0 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
24/10/2015	West Ham v Chelsea	2 – 1	Lay A	0.95
25/10/2015	Bournemouth v Tottenham	1 – 5	Lay A	-1.00
25/10/2015	Liverpool v Southampton	1 – 1	Lay H	0.90
25/10/2015	Man United v Man City	0 – 0	Lay H	0.61
25/10/2015	Sunderland v Newcastle	3 – 0	No bet	0.00
31/10/2015	Chelsea v Liverpool	1 – 3	Bet H	-1.00
31/10/2015	Crystal Palace v Man United	0 – 0	Lay A	0.88
31/10/2015	Man City v Norwich	2 – 1	Bet H	0.31
31/10/2015	Newcastle v Stoke	0 – 0	Lay H	0.68
31/10/2015	Swansea v Arsenal	0 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
31/10/2015	Watford v West Ham	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
31/10/2015	West Brom v Leicester	2 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
01/11/2015	Everton v Sunderland	6 – 2	No bet	0.00
01/11/2015	Southampton v Bournemouth	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
02/11/2015	Tottenham v Aston Villa	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
07/11/2015	Bournemouth v Newcastle	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
07/11/2015	Leicester v Watford	2 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
07/11/2015	Man United v West Brom	2 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
07/11/2015	Norwich v Swansea	1 – 0	Bet H	1.55
07/11/2015	Stoke v Chelsea	1 – 0	Lay A	0.89
07/11/2015	Sunderland v Southampton	0 – 1	Bet A	0.85
07/11/2015	West Ham v Everton	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
08/11/2015	Arsenal v Tottenham	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
08/11/2015	Aston Villa v Man City	0 – 0	Bet A	-1.00
08/11/2015	Liverpool v Crystal Palace	1 – 2	Lay H	1.40
21/11/2015	Chelsea v Norwich	1 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
21/11/2015	Everton v Aston Villa	4 – 0	No bet	0.00
21/11/2015	Man City v Liverpool	1 – 4	Bet H	-1.00
21/11/2015	Newcastle v Leicester	0 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
21/11/2015	Southampton v Stoke	0 – 1	Lay H	1.59
21/11/2015	Swansea v Bournemouth	2 – 2	Lay H	1.08
21/11/2015	Watford v Man United	1 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
21/11/2015	West Brom v Arsenal	2 – 1	Lay A	1.70
22/11/2015	Tottenham v West Ham	4 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
23/11/2015	Crystal Palace v Sunderland	0 – 1	No bet	0.00
28/11/2015	Aston Villa v Watford	2 – 3	No bet	0.00
28/11/2015	Bournemouth v Everton	3 – 3	Lay A	0.64
28/11/2015	Crystal Palace v Newcastle	5 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
28/11/2015	Leicester v Man United	1 – 1	Lay A	0.71
28/11/2015	Man City v Southampton	3 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
28/11/2015	Sunderland v Stoke	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
29/11/2015	Liverpool v Swansea	1 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
29/11/2015	Norwich v Arsenal	1 – 1	Lay A	1.54
29/11/2015	Tottenham v Chelsea	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
29/11/2015	West Ham v West Brom	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
05/12/2015	Arsenal v Sunderland	3 – 1	Bet H	0.29
05/12/2015	Chelsea v Bournemouth	0 – 1	Lay H	2.44
05/12/2015	Man United v West Ham	0 – 0	Lay H	2.16
05/12/2015	Southampton v Aston Villa	1 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
05/12/2015	Stoke v Man City	2 – 0	Lay A	1.35
05/12/2015	Swansea v Leicester	0 – 3	Bet H	-1.00
05/12/2015	Watford v Norwich	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
05/12/2015	West Brom v Tottenham	1 – 1	Lay A	1.09
06/12/2015	Newcastle v Liverpool	2 – 0	Lay A	1.55
07/12/2015	Everton v Crystal Palace	1 – 1	No bet	0.00
12/12/2015	Bournemouth v Man United	2 – 1	Lay A	0.72
12/12/2015	Crystal Palace v Southampton	1 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
12/12/2015	Man City v Swansea	2 – 1	Bet H	0.33
12/12/2015	Norwich v Everton	1 – 1	Lay A	0.64
12/12/2015	Sunderland v Watford	0 – 1	No bet	0.00
12/12/2015	West Ham v Stoke	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
13/12/2015	Aston Villa v Arsenal	0 – 2	Bet A	0.61
13/12/2015	Liverpool v West Brom	2 – 2	Lay H	2.24
13/12/2015	Tottenham v Newcastle	1 – 2	No bet	0.00
14/12/2015	Leicester v Chelsea	2 – 1	Lay A	0.75
19/12/2015	Chelsea v Sunderland	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
19/12/2015	Everton v Leicester	2 – 3	No bet	0.00
19/12/2015	Man United v Norwich	1 – 2	Lay H	2.03
19/12/2015	Newcastle v Aston Villa	1 – 1	No bet	0.00
19/12/2015	Southampton v Tottenham	0 – 2	Bet H	-1.00
19/12/2015	Stoke v Crystal Palace	1 – 2	No bet	0.00
19/12/2015	West Brom v Bournemouth	1 – 2	Lay H	0.61
20/12/2015	Swansea v West Ham	0 – 0	Lay H	0.87
20/12/2015	Watford v Liverpool	3 – 0	Lay A	0.96
21/12/2015	Arsenal v Man City	2 – 1	Bet H	1.50
26/12/2015	Aston Villa v West Ham	1 – 1	Lay H	0.55
26/12/2015	Bournemouth v Crystal Palace	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
26/12/2015	Chelsea v Watford	2 – 2	Lay H	1.92
26/12/2015	Liverpool v Leicester	1 – 0	Bet H	1.00
26/12/2015	Man City v Sunderland	4 – 1	Bet H	0.23
26/12/2015	Newcastle v Everton	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
26/12/2015	Southampton v Arsenal	4 – 0	Lay A	0.84
26/12/2015	Stoke v Man United	2 – 0	Lay A	0.68
26/12/2015	Swansea v West Brom	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
26/12/2015	Tottenham v Norwich	3 – 0	Lay H	-1.00
28/12/2015	Arsenal v Bournemouth	2 – 0	No bet	0.00
28/12/2015	Crystal Palace v Swansea	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
28/12/2015	Everton v Stoke	3 – 4	No bet	0.00
28/12/2015	Man United v Chelsea	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
28/12/2015	Norwich v Aston Villa	2 – 0	Bet H	1.10
28/12/2015	Watford v Tottenham	1 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
28/12/2015	West Brom v Newcastle	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
28/12/2015	West Ham v Southampton	2 – 1	Lay A	0.75
29/12/2015	Leicester v Man City	0 – 0	No bet	0.00
30/12/2015	Sunderland v Liverpool	0 – 1	Lay A	-1.00
02/01/2016	Arsenal v Newcastle	1 – 0	Bet H	0.30
02/01/2016	Leicester v Bournemouth	0 – 0	No bet	0.00
02/01/2016	Man United v Swansea	2 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
02/01/2016	Norwich v Southampton	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
02/01/2016	Sunderland v Aston Villa	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
02/01/2016	Watford v Man City	1 – 2	Lay A	-1.00
02/01/2016	West Brom v Stoke	2 – 1	No bet	0.00
02/01/2016	West Ham v Liverpool	2 – 0	Lay A	0.92
03/01/2016	Crystal Palace v Chelsea	0 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
03/01/2016	Everton v Tottenham	1 – 1	Lay A	0.58
12/01/2016	Aston Villa v Crystal Palace	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
12/01/2016	Bournemouth v West Ham	1 – 3	Lay H	0.97
12/01/2016	Newcastle v Man United	3 – 3	Lay A	1.21
13/01/2016	Chelsea v West Brom	2 – 2	Lay H	2.11
13/01/2016	Liverpool v Arsenal	3 – 3	Lay A	0.62
13/01/2016	Man City v Everton	0 – 0	Bet H	-1.00
13/01/2016	Southampton v Watford	2 – 0	Bet H	1.05
13/01/2016	Stoke v Norwich	3 – 1	No bet	0.00
13/01/2016	Swansea v Sunderland	2 – 4	No bet	0.00
13/01/2016	Tottenham v Leicester	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
16/01/2016	Aston Villa v Leicester	1 – 1	No bet	0.00
16/01/2016	Bournemouth v Norwich	3 – 0	No bet	0.00
16/01/2016	Chelsea v Everton	3 – 3	No bet	0.00
16/01/2016	Man City v Crystal Palace	4 – 0	No bet	0.00
16/01/2016	Newcastle v West Ham	2 – 1	Lay H	-1.00
16/01/2016	Southampton v West Brom	3 – 0	Bet H	0.80
16/01/2016	Tottenham v Sunderland	4 – 1	Bet H	0.40
17/01/2016	Liverpool v Man United	0 – 1	No bet	0.00
17/01/2016	Stoke v Arsenal	0 – 0	Lay A	0.97
18/01/2016	Swansea v Watford	1 – 0	No bet	0.00
23/01/2016	Crystal Palace v Tottenham	1 – 3	Lay A	-1.00
23/01/2016	Leicester v Stoke	3 – 0	No bet	0.00
23/01/2016	Man United v Southampton	0 – 1	Lay H	1.04
23/01/2016	Norwich v Liverpool	4 – 5	Lay A	-1.00
23/01/2016	Sunderland v Bournemouth	1 – 1	No bet	0.00
23/01/2016	Watford v Newcastle	2 – 1	Bet H	1.10
23/01/2016	West Brom v Aston Villa	0 – 0	No bet	0.00
23/01/2016	West Ham v Man City	2 – 2	Lay A	1.33
24/01/2016	Arsenal v Chelsea	0 – 1	Bet H	-1.00
24/01/2016	Everton v Swansea	1 – 2	Lay H	1.36