Euro 2020 projection

Forecasting international tournaments is tricky, because it’s difficult to robustly assess the relative strengths of the competing teams. Unlike league football, we only have a small sample of recent international matches to use for analysis – and these are far from perfect, because of the differing strengths of opponents, the mix of competitive and friendly…

Cook’s Cast-offs – are they any good?

Is Paul Cook’s widely reported rejection of the majority of the Ipswich Town squad justified? After this most dismal of seasons, where the team somehow managed worsen after he replaced the hapless Paul Lambert – it’s easy to sympathise. Things haven’t been working effectively at Town for years. But is wholesale change the right strategy…

2019/2020 Premier League Projection

Here’s my 2019/2020 season Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and…

2018/19 Premier League Projection review

The table below shows a comparison of my model’s pre-season premier league points projection against the betting market (using Sporting Index’s pre-season mid-points price). My model performed well for the top 6, but overall the Sporting Index price performed better.

2018/19 Premier League Projection

Here’s my 2018/19 Premier League projection I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for and against…

World cup 2018 preview 3 – name the finalists likelihood

Using my simulation model, these are the likelihoods of 2 given teams meeting in the final. The structure of the knock-out rounds means that there’s a lower likelihood of Germany v Spain or France v Brazil finals as they’re more likely to meet before the final (if they win their groups). Note: the probabilities are…

2018 World Cup preview 2 – Projected outcomes

Here’s my full projection for the 2018 FIFA World Cup This is a result of 5000 simulations, using my International ratings. I’ve put some notes about the methodology behind these below. International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a…

World Cup 2018 preview 1 – how goal patterns repeat in international tournaments

International football is a strange beast, for the period in-between tournaments it’s an irritating punctuation –offering sporadic qualifiers or sterile friendly matches – unwelcome to players, managers and fans alike. Yet international tournament football has a capacity to engage and unify unlike any other form of the game (or probably any other sport). International football…

Too much information!

One of the key necessities for predicting a match outcome is determining which information is relevant and which isn’t.  Nowadays there are abundant sources of football data, which can help better model the likelihood of a particular event happening. It’s certainly vastly better than 20 or 30 years ago, when the league table was pretty…

2017/18 Premier League Preview

Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…

Assessing the model – the season so far

I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here  in a good article by Pinnacle)….