Cristiano Ronaldo was vilified for choosing to take the 5th penalty in Portugal’s Confederations cup shoot-out against Chile, in the wake of defeat after missing their first 3 spot-kicks. Ronaldo didn’t get a chance to take one. The media based its derision on a view that Ronaldo was seeking glory by choosing to take the…
Tag: probabilities
Assessing the model – the season so far
I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here in a good article by Pinnacle)….
Effective player assessment (and is Wayne Rooney really playing that badly?)
Quickly assessing the ability of individual players isn’t a particularly easy task; firstly because a player’s overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily the sum of a series of data points (goals, assists, passes, tackles etc) and secondly – good quality, manipulable, player-data is difficult to get hold of. There are a few good sources of Team data…
A Magnificent Seven
After a magnificent seven Premier League match weeks, it’s that time when an unscrupulous and powerful organisation disturbs the peace by imposing its will on agitated locals – the horrific International Weekend. The Bounty Hunter This enforced hiatus already prompted one City to enlist the services of an American bounty hunter, to assemble a team…
Man United v Man City detailed modelling preview
Introduction Even early in the season, Saturday’s Manchester derby appears one of those matches that will have a significant bearing on the Premier League title. Added to this it’s the first meeting of the teams’ two new managerial behemoths – so it seems appropriate to give this game added scrutiny from a modelling point of view….
Bad Numbers
Simply placing the word “bad” before a dreary noun seemingly endows an intimidating edge, perfect for a Hollywood movie title; Santa, neighbours, teachers, moms, and even grandpa all get the formulaic comedy treatment. It’s Bad meaning bad-ass in a way that gets past the censor. Three games into the season, if only there was a…
La Liga 2016/17 Projection
La Liga 2016/17 projection, modelled solely using adjusted goal ratings (i.e. only uses retrospective data) Expected points
2016/17 Premier League Projection – Value in Spurs
After reviewing the impact of close season activity for each Premier League team, I’m now in a position to compile my first projection for the 2016/17 season. Unlike last year I have made some adjustment for each club’s player turnover. I’ve also made an allowance for the impact of teams’ participation in European Competition compared…
Pre-Season projection preview – West Ham United
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up West Ham United. Last Season West Ham had an excellent 2015/16 season – comfortably achieving their ambition of Premier League survival, and even securing European football. As I discussed here the market…
Pre-Season Projection preview – West Bromwich Albion
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up West Brom. Last Season West Brom’s 2015/16 campaign was pretty grim, registering the fewest shots on target. But, typical of a Tony Pulis managed side, they comfortably avoided relegation – mainly…
Pre-season projection preview -Tottenham Hotspur
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Spurs. Last Season Tottenhams’s underlying numbers last season were truly spectacular, leading the league for shots on target and (fewest) shots on target conceded. Only Manchester City scored more and Manchester United…
Pre-season projection preview – Sunderland
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Sunderland. Last Season Sunderland were poor last season. I rated them at the 3rd worst team. Concerningly they conceded more shots on target than any other team last season (and that includes…
goal projection 