2016/17 Premier League Projection – Value in Spurs

After reviewing the impact of close season activity for each Premier League team, I’m now in a position to compile my first projection for the 2016/17 season.

Unlike last year I have made some adjustment for each club’s player turnover. I’ve also made an allowance for the impact of teams’ participation in European Competition compared with last season (and some other factors). I’ve set out the specific allowances for individual clubs (and the reasons) later.

The method I use for Projections is explained here

Expected Points

ExpectedPoints

To show where my model varies from the market I’ve compared expected points against Sporting Index mid point. I’ve written many times about how good Spurs were last season using my shot-based Adjusted Goals rating. This is reflected in the projection above – where I’m expecting them to beat the market estimate by 8 points.

Manchester City’s underlying numbers are always good, and this added to squad strengthening takes them to (just) top position in my Projection – pretty close to the market. I also value Liverpool higher than the market

However despite significantly uprating both Manchester United (due to player acquisitions) and Chelsea (no European competition and peculiar performance last season) – the market has assumed even greater improvement than my model. The market’s giving Chelsea an additional 21.25 points against last season.

Other notable differences are Everton – where market is assuming an improvement, probably due to management and ownership change, and Middlesbrough and Swansea (both modelled as better than the market).

Winner

Winner

This reveals a similar picture to expected points. I definitely see value for Spurs here.

Top 4

Top4

Again, great value in Spurs (and also Liverpool). Model identifies Arsenal as overvalued, which is perhaps dangerous given their qualification record.

Relegation

relegation

The market gives promoted teams Hull City and Burnley a high chance of relegation. My model does too, but not to the same extent. My Adjusted Goals method actually rates Hull City highly (based on last season’s Championship performance). But given current uncertainty at the club, expectations aren’t high. I’ve made a large adjustment, but clearly not as much as the market.

So despite modelling Burnley and  Hull as relegation favourites, I don’t see any value here. The value identified is with West Brom (although it would perhaps be foolhardy to bet against Tony Pulis) and Stoke – poorly rated by my shot based system.

I also see some relegation value in the mid table teams – Palace, West Ham, Southampton and Everton – revealing that I possibly allow for more variance around the central estimate than the market does.

Summary

The market expects new managers and players to significantly improve Chelsea, Manchester United and (to a lesser extent) Manchester City compared with last season – which has impacted Tottenham’s expected chances. I think there looks value in Spurs for the title, and top 4. This is also the case for Liverpool, who benefit from not participating in European competition.

Allowances made on top of last season “Adjusted Goals” and squad changes

 Team Addition to to rating Reason
Chelsea 0.35 No European competion & some allowance for possible anomily last season
Hull -0.3 Current uncertainty
Leicester -0.2 Champions League
Liverpool 0.2 No European competion
Southampton -0.2 Europa League
West Ham -0.2 Europa League

Note

I may tweak the projection prior to the first match to allow for any significant transfer activity. I have already assumed that Paul Pogba’s transfer to Manchester United does take place, but I haven’t allowed for Andre Ayew’s move from Swansea to West Ham, which will impact both teams’ rating.

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