To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Stoke City Last Season Stoke are an odd team. They appear to be brimming with creative talent (my abiding memory of Stoke last season is how they destroyed both Man City’s and…
Tag: probabilities
Pre-season projection preview – Southampton
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Southampton. Last Season Southampton have become a strong, top half Premier League team. My shot-based rating assessment ranked them 6th last season, and that’s where they finished in the table. Player Turnover…
Pre-season projection preview – Middlesbrough
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Middlesbrough Last Season Middlesbrough has a strong 2015/16 Championship campaign, fully deserving automatic promotion after finishing second. It was a success built on defensive strength, conceding comfortably the fewest goals of any…
Pre-season projection preview – Manchester City
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Manchester City. Last Season Manchester City have been the dominant Premier League team over the last few seasons in terms of underlying shot numbers – although trophy return doesn’t quite reflect…
Pre-season projection preview – Liverpool
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Liverpool. Last Season Despite only finishing 8th, Liverpool were really quite good last season. Using underlying shot data I had them as the 4th best team (above Leicester City). Add to…
Championship 2016/17 Projection
The Championship starts tomorrow. It should be a fascinating season, with two erstwhile Premier League giants and Norwich joining from the top division, first-timers Burton, and clashes between former European Champions and former Champions League winning managers. I’ve run the numbers through my projection model (using my adjusted goals rating system) and it’s produced the following…
Pre-season projection preview – Chelsea
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Chelsea. Last Season In many ways Chelsea’s demise last season was as shocking as Leicester’s ascendancy. And it’s still difficult to explain, given the squad was little changed from the one that…
Pre-season projection preview – Burnley
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Burnley. Last Season Burnley are a team that (like Leicester) defy statistical assessment. They were promoted 4 points clear as champions, yet my shot-based assessment rated them as the 6th best…
Pre-season projection preview – Bournemouth
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Bournemouth. Last Season Bournemouth tailed off towards the end of last season, although they easily achieved their main objective of avoiding relegation. They did well at preventing chances – but one…
2016/17 Premier League preview – introduction
With fewer than 2 weeks to go until the start of the 2016/17 Premier League I’m starting to compile my season projections. Where to start? The best place is usually the previous season, and this applies in the Premier League more than any other – with extraordinarily high correlation between consecutive seasons. As the graph…
Risk and Reward – managing your betting pot
So you’ve identified a value betting opportunity – how much do you wager? The answer will probably make or break your chances of long-term success. Even if you consistently spot genuine value, the capricious nature of chance dictates that undisciplined staking is the road to ruin. Yet, whilst there are no guarantees in the fickle…
Euro 2016 modelling review
So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…
goal projection 