Too much information!

One of the key necessities for predicting a match outcome is determining which information is relevant and which isn’t.  Nowadays there are abundant sources of football data, which can help better model the likelihood of a particular event happening. It’s certainly vastly better than 20 or 30 years ago, when the league table was pretty…

2017/18 Premier League Preview

Here’s my pre-season analysis and projection for the Premier League. I use a simple shot based model to assess teams, it’s explained here – but to summarise, it works out each team’s attacking and defensive strength by applying factors to goals, shots and shots on target, to produce a rating I call “adjusted goals”. Adjusted goals for…

Assessing the model – the season so far

I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here  in a good article by Pinnacle)….

Effective player assessment (and is Wayne Rooney really playing that badly?)

Quickly assessing the ability of individual players isn’t a particularly easy task; firstly because a player’s overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily the sum of a series of data points (goals, assists, passes, tackles etc) and secondly – good quality, manipulable, player-data is difficult to get hold of. There are a few good sources of Team data…

A Magnificent Seven

After a magnificent seven Premier League match weeks, it’s that time when an unscrupulous and powerful organisation disturbs the peace by imposing its will on agitated locals – the horrific International Weekend. The Bounty Hunter This enforced hiatus already prompted one City to enlist the services of an American bounty hunter, to assemble a team…