To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Burnley. Last Season Burnley are a team that (like Leicester) defy statistical assessment. They were promoted 4 points clear as champions, yet my shot-based assessment rated them as the 6th best…
Pre-season projection preview – Bournemouth
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Bournemouth. Last Season Bournemouth tailed off towards the end of last season, although they easily achieved their main objective of avoiding relegation. They did well at preventing chances – but one…
Pre-season projection preview – Arsenal
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. First up Arsenal. Last Season There’s not much wrong with Arsenal (other than never winning anything). Overall they had a strong season, creating chances freely and ultimately finishing second. However, in a…
2016/17 Premier League preview – introduction
With fewer than 2 weeks to go until the start of the 2016/17 Premier League I’m starting to compile my season projections. Where to start? The best place is usually the previous season, and this applies in the Premier League more than any other – with extraordinarily high correlation between consecutive seasons. As the graph…
Risk and Reward – managing your betting pot
So you’ve identified a value betting opportunity – how much do you wager? The answer will probably make or break your chances of long-term success. Even if you consistently spot genuine value, the capricious nature of chance dictates that undisciplined staking is the road to ruin. Yet, whilst there are no guarantees in the fickle…
Sam Allardyce – the sensible choice?
My view of Sam Allardyce is heavily influenced by the most exciting match I’ve ever watched. Ipswich’s 5-3 (AET) defeat of Bolton in a play-off semi final in May 2000. A match memorable not only for Jim Magilton’s heroic hat-trick, but also the fact that Bolton managed to concede 3 penalties and receive 2 red…
Euro 2016 modelling review
So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…
Euro 2016 – Third round of group matches, assessing the model
Just 22 goals were scored in the final round of group matches, averaging 1.8 per game. Group F provided the only incentive fuelled high scoring denouement. Perhaps the 24 team structure generated more caution than usual for the final group matches, as this is historically the highest scoring stage of a tournament. As a result my model overestimated the number of goals…
Euro 2016 – Second round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the scoring rate has increased in the second round of group matches, to 2.1 from 1.8 per game in the first round of matches. This reflects the need of some teams to eschew their initial caution. Even so, scoring rate is still historically low, in previous tournaments the average rate for the second round has been at…
Euro 2016 – first round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the first round of group matches has been low scoring, with an average of 1.83 goals per game, this is even lower than the historical average 2.10. Strangely though we haven’t seen a 0-0 draw, with match results clustered around a few outcomes: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1. My model expected a total of 25.6 goals…
goal projection 