To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Bournemouth.
Last Season
Bournemouth tailed off towards the end of last season, although they easily achieved their main objective of avoiding relegation. They did well at preventing chances – but one concerning aspect from last season’s numbers is that Bournemouth suffered the worst save rate of shots on target (57%). Time for a new goalkeeper?
Player Turnover
To illustrate the relative strengths of key players joining and leaving, the numbers below compare defensive, passing and attacking strength against the average premier league player in 2015/16 (0% means at the same level as the average premier league player, greater than 0% is better and less than 0% is worse). Defensive assessment is the sum of defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks). Passing is number of completed passes, and attacking strength is goals plus assists (all measured per match). This isn’t a robust statistical analysis, and can be skewed due to acquisition from a weaker league or lack of minutes played – but the purpose is to simply indicate the comparative strength of incoming and outgoing players.
Bournemouth have had one of the highest rates of player turnover in the premier league, with players exiting making up 17% of minutes played last season. Significant players leaving are Matt Richie and Tommy Elphick. But they both appear to been replaced by good players in Nathan Ake (who was particularly effective at Watford last season) and Jordan Ibe.
European Competition
No. No change from last season.
Management
No change
Overall assessment
Team strength looks similar to last season – although the high level of player turnover makes Bournemouth more difficult to predict.
02/08/2016
Other previews
goal projection 