2016/17 Premier League projection

Hull City’s play-off final victory completes next season’s Premier League line-up. This means that I can run my first projection for the new season. I use my adjusted goals measure to rank teams (which is based on goals and shots). It’s solely retrospective, based on last seasons numbers – so, for example, makes no amendment for…

Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?

Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…

League probability projections – why so volatile?

This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…

Championship projection at 9/12/2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using the rand() random number function to generate goals for and against –…

EPL projection 8 December 2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. Below are projections for the English Premier League at 8 December 2015. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using…