League probability projections – why so volatile?

This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…

Championship projection at 9/12/2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using the rand() random number function to generate goals for and against –…

EPL projection 8 December 2015

Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. Below are projections for the English Premier League at 8 December 2015. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using…