Championship 2016/17 Projection

The Championship starts tomorrow. It should be a fascinating season, with two erstwhile Premier League giants and Norwich joining from the top division, first-timers Burton, and clashes between former European Champions and former Champions League winning managers.

I’ve run the numbers through my projection model (using my adjusted goals rating system) and it’s produced the following results. Note – these are based solely on last season’s shot and goal data (adjustments are made to teams joining from different leagues). Sadly I haven’t had time to take account of the £ millions spent on player acquisition over the close season.

This projection doesn’t reflect the general consensus that Newcastle will walk the league. Their numbers in last year’s Premier League weren’t great, and after adjustment appropriate for a typical relegated team – I have them as 5th best. Now, this doesn’t allow for the Benitez effect, nor for Newcastle’s summer signings, but does perhaps reflect that they might be overvalued at 2.81 (36%) to win the league. I have Derby and Brighton neck and neck as the top two.

champprom

 

champrel

 

Full Championship data

champfull

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