To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Manchester United. Last Season A dull Premier League campaign cost Van Gaal his job – despite winning the FA Cup. Although defensively dominant, only 6 teams registered fewer shots on target…
Month: August 2016
Pre-season projection preview – Liverpool
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Liverpool. Last Season Despite only finishing 8th, Liverpool were really quite good last season. Using underlying shot data I had them as the 4th best team (above Leicester City). Add to…
Championship 2016/17 Projection
The Championship starts tomorrow. It should be a fascinating season, with two erstwhile Premier League giants and Norwich joining from the top division, first-timers Burton, and clashes between former European Champions and former Champions League winning managers. I’ve run the numbers through my projection model (using my adjusted goals rating system) and it’s produced the following…
Pre-season projection preview – Leicester City
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Leicester City. Last Season Leicester’s remarkable 2015/16 season needs little reminder, and is in no need of further analysis. Some still point to an element of luck – and, sure enough, they…
Pre-season projection preview – Hull City
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Hull City. Last Season In many ways Hull City are the antithesis of fellow new-boys Burnley. I rated Hull as the best side in the Championship last season – with the…
Pre-season projection preview – Everton
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Everton. Last Season Everton underperformed last season. And it’s not difficult to identify the problem. Only Norwich and Villa conceded more shots on target. Roberto Martinez paid the price for this…
Pre-season projection preview – Crystal Palace
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Palace. Last Season Palace’s Cup Final appearance masked what was probably considered a poor season. They were solid bottom-half-of-table, without any serious threat of relegation. Goal scoring was the main problem….
Pre-season projection preview – Chelsea
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Chelsea. Last Season In many ways Chelsea’s demise last season was as shocking as Leicester’s ascendancy. And it’s still difficult to explain, given the squad was little changed from the one that…
Pre-season projection preview – Burnley
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Burnley. Last Season Burnley are a team that (like Leicester) defy statistical assessment. They were promoted 4 points clear as champions, yet my shot-based assessment rated them as the 6th best…
Pre-season projection preview – Bournemouth
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Bournemouth. Last Season Bournemouth tailed off towards the end of last season, although they easily achieved their main objective of avoiding relegation. They did well at preventing chances – but one…
Pre-season projection preview – Arsenal
To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. First up Arsenal. Last Season There’s not much wrong with Arsenal (other than never winning anything). Overall they had a strong season, creating chances freely and ultimately finishing second. However, in a…
2016/17 Premier League preview – introduction
With fewer than 2 weeks to go until the start of the 2016/17 Premier League I’m starting to compile my season projections. Where to start? The best place is usually the previous season, and this applies in the Premier League more than any other – with extraordinarily high correlation between consecutive seasons. As the graph…
goal projection 