To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Hull City.
Last Season
In many ways Hull City are the antithesis of fellow new-boys Burnley. I rated Hull as the best side in the Championship last season – with the most shots on target and the least conceded. Yet they only scraped through the play-offs and with less than a week and a half to the season start, still have no manager. Whereas Burnley have poor underlying numbers but a great manager.
Player Turnover
To illustrate the relative strengths of key players joining and leaving, the numbers below compare defensive, passing and attacking strength against the average premier league player in 2015/16 (0% means at the same level as the average premier league player, greater than 0% is better and less than 0% is worse). Defensive assessment is the sum of defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks). Passing is number of completed passes, and attacking strength is goals plus assists (all measured per match). This isn’t a robust statistical analysis, and can be skewed due to acquisition from a weaker league or lack of minutes played – but the purpose is to simply indicate the comparative strength of incoming and outgoing players.
Worryingly for Hull, no activity other than the recent sale of Diame to Newcastle. This will particularly weaken chance creation.
European Competition
No. No change.
Management
Yes. At time of writing no manager
Overall assessment
Weaker. As said, Hull City posted great numbers last season and seemed well set for the Premier League. But the current uncertainty at the club is likely to adversely affect performance.
03/08/2016
Other previews
Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton
