Pre-season projection preview – Everton

To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Everton.

Last Season

Everton underperformed last season. And it’s not difficult to identify the problem. Only Norwich and Villa conceded more shots on target. Roberto Martinez paid the price for this defensive frailty.

Player Turnover

To illustrate the relative strengths of key players joining and leaving, the numbers below compare defensive, passing and attacking strength against the average premier league player in 2015/16 (0% means at the same level as the average premier league player, greater than 0% is better and less than 0% is worse). Defensive assessment is the sum of defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks). Passing is number of completed passes, and attacking strength is goals plus assists (all measured per match). This isn’t a robust statistical analysis, and can be skewed due to acquisition from a weaker league or lack of minutes played – but the purpose is to simply indicate the comparative strength of incoming and outgoing players.


Perhaps surprisingly, given the new manager and new owners – Idrissa Gueye is currently the only signing. Despite arriving from a dismal Villa side, he looks a great signing with the defensive qualities that Everton need.

European Competition

No. No change.


Yes. Ronald Koeman arrives with strong premier league experience. Likely his first task is to strengthen that defensive fragility.

Overall assessment

Slightly stronger – but this could quickly change either way with transfer activity until the window.


Other previews

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace

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