So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…
Tag: probabilities
Euro 2016 – Third round of group matches, assessing the model
Just 22 goals were scored in the final round of group matches, averaging 1.8 per game. Group F provided the only incentive fuelled high scoring denouement. Perhaps the 24 team structure generated more caution than usual for the final group matches, as this is historically the highest scoring stage of a tournament. As a result my model overestimated the number of goals…
Euro 2016 – Second round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the scoring rate has increased in the second round of group matches, to 2.1 from 1.8 per game in the first round of matches. This reflects the need of some teams to eschew their initial caution. Even so, scoring rate is still historically low, in previous tournaments the average rate for the second round has been at…
Euro 2016 – first round of group matches, model assessment
As expected the first round of group matches has been low scoring, with an average of 1.83 goals per game, this is even lower than the historical average 2.10. Strangely though we haven’t seen a 0-0 draw, with match results clustered around a few outcomes: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1. My model expected a total of 25.6 goals…
Euro 2016 – full projection
After creating attack and defence ratings for the 24 Euro 2016 teams, based on their underlying squad strength (as described here), I can run simulations to look at the likelihood of different tournament outcomes, including the winner. My projection simulates the score of each match for 5000 different possible tournament outcomes – including potential extra time…
League probability projections – why so volatile?
This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…
goal projection 