Assessing the model – the season so far

I use my adjusted goals model to generate probabilities for each Premier League match.The international break gives a chance to assess the model to find out if it’s beating the market. For an initial assessment of my model’s overall performance against the market I’ve used a Brier score method (explained here  in a good article by Pinnacle)….

Social Responsibility – Can the Betting Industry improve its image?

The Government’s recent call for evidence for its review of Gaming Machines and Social Responsibility Measures offers the UK betting industry an important opportunity to improve its image. Although the review relates primarily to gaming machines – it also considers the industry as a whole, particularly concerning social responsibility measures to minimise the risk of…

Mick McCarthy’s magic method – 2016/17 Season update

Last November I wrote about the peculiar characteristics of  Mick McCarthy’s tactical signature – copied below. In particular, his unusual ability to deliver results with a consistently minuscule pass success rate. So, how’s he faring this season?  A quick look at the stats tables reveals that Ipswich are, yet again, bottom of the pass %…

Effective player assessment (and is Wayne Rooney really playing that badly?)

Quickly assessing the ability of individual players isn’t a particularly easy task; firstly because a player’s overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily the sum of a series of data points (goals, assists, passes, tackles etc) and secondly – good quality, manipulable, player-data is difficult to get hold of. There are a few good sources of Team data…

A Magnificent Seven

After a magnificent seven Premier League match weeks, it’s that time when an unscrupulous and powerful organisation disturbs the peace by imposing its will on agitated locals – the horrific International Weekend. The Bounty Hunter This enforced hiatus already prompted one City to enlist the services of an American bounty hunter, to assemble a team…

Man United v Man City detailed modelling preview

Introduction Even early in the season, Saturday’s Manchester derby appears one of those matches that will have a significant bearing on the Premier League title. Added to this it’s the first meeting of the teams’ two new managerial behemoths – so it seems appropriate to give this game added scrutiny from a modelling point of view….

Bad Numbers

Simply placing the word “bad” before a dreary noun seemingly endows an intimidating edge, perfect for a Hollywood movie title; Santa, neighbours, teachers, moms, and even grandpa all get the formulaic comedy treatment. It’s Bad meaning bad-ass in a way that gets past the censor. Three games into the season, if only there was a…

La Liga 2016/17 Projection

La Liga 2016/17 projection, modelled solely using adjusted goal ratings (i.e. only uses retrospective data) Expected points

2016/17 Premier League Projection – Value in Spurs

After reviewing the impact of close season activity for each Premier League team, I’m now in a position to compile my first projection for the 2016/17 season. Unlike last year I have made some adjustment for each club’s player turnover. I’ve also made an allowance for the impact of teams’ participation in European Competition compared…

Pre-Season projection preview – West Ham United

To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up West Ham United. Last Season West Ham had an excellent 2015/16 season – comfortably achieving their ambition of Premier League survival, and even securing European football. As I discussed here the market…

Pre-Season Projection preview – West Bromwich Albion

To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up West Brom. Last Season West Brom’s 2015/16 campaign was pretty grim, registering the fewest shots on target. But, typical of a Tony Pulis managed side, they comfortably avoided relegation – mainly…

Pre-season Projection preview – Watford

To enhance my 2016/17 Premier League projection I’m reviewing factors that may impact each team’s strength compared with last season, as explained here. Next up Watford. Last Season Watford achieved their objective of avoiding relegation. Their underlying numbers suggest that a finishing position of 13th was about right. Curiously, it also cost Quique Flores his job. But…