So as the dust (and moths) settle on Euro 2016, I’m able to review the full performance of my model. Before the tournament I created a model that rated teams using the strength of their underlying players, which in turn were evaluated using the adjusted goals rating of their club teams (explained here). Tournament and individual…
Category: Blogs
Euro 2016 – Assessing international teams
International football is difficult to analyse. Unlike domestic league football, where vast quantities of data exist to assess team and player performance in a variety of conditions, negligible relevant data is available for international football. It is, by its nature infrequent – so tournament line-ups may bear little resemblance to those of previous matches –…
Reflections on a strange season
Now that the Premier League’s unscheduled foray into added time has finished, I’ve set out my reflections after 6 months of attempting to model outcomes (with varying degrees of success). The big picture First thing to note; it appears to have been a strange season. Leicester’s much written about (my attempt’s here) 5000-1 success is…
Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?
Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…
The shifting demographic order of English Premier League clubs
Three big clubs occupy the Premier League’s relegation places. Villa are down, Newcastle almost there, with only Sunderland still clinging to slim survival chances. What causes these footballing behemoths to struggle when so many seemingly smaller clubs thrive in the modern football world? These clubs really are big. Using most measures of bigness – they…
Assessing the model 20/03/2016
I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…
The West Ham Conundrum – updated
In January I queried why West Ham United are valued so poorly by bookie’s odds. A month and a half later it’s still happening. Each week I calculate probabilities for Premier League match outcomes using a model based on goals, shots and shots on target – and compare these against bookies odds. They’re normally pretty…
League probability projections – why so volatile?
This season’s Premier League title race is captivating. Four teams, led by unfancied Leicester City, all have a reasonable chance of winning. How do we know this? Firstly, betting markets give us a good guide to the likely champions. But there are also now many models that calculate the probability of season-end outcomes by simulating thousands…
Championship bang for buck update
At the start of January I described how expected return on player investment has never been higher for Championship clubs, due to the inflated Premier League mega-millions bestowed for promotion. And that the group of clubs challenging for promotion below Middlesbrough had most to gain. Now the window’s closed it’s worth reviewing how things have…
Assessing the model
I’ve started posting Premier League result probabilities and projected goals for each round of matches, using my adjusted goals rating system. As explained, the ratings are long-term, averaged over this season and last season so can be a good starting point for assessing value. But, because they’re long-term, there is much that they don’t take…
Why isn’t escalating revenue improving quality in the English Premier League?
Measured by European success the English Premier league is on the wane. As @KristianJack explained, from 2004 to 2009 12 out of the 20 Champions League semi-finalists were from the Premier League. Yet over the following 6 seasons only 3 of 24 semi-finalists were English. This apparent decline took place over a period when burgeoning…
The West Ham United conundrum
There’s a common consensus that the 2015 English premier league is unusually unpredictable. And to demonstrate this – an examination of the difference between teams’ actual points and those expected by the betting market reveals a number of teams that have significantly over or under performed. Using max odds from football-data.co.uk, expected points for a team…
goal projection 