EPL Goal projection calculator

Explanation

This simple goal projection interactive calculator projects future goals, using adjusted goals as the attack and defence rating for each team.

But it’s an interactive spreadsheet, so attack and defence ratings can be amended as desired to take account of factors not fully allowed for in the ratings (which are derived from goals, shots on target and shots over the current and previous season).

The period of projection can also be amended.

It can be used for a number of purposes, but I use it mainly for choosing which teams’ players to include in my various fantasy football teams.

As with all my projections, the purpose is to aid understanding (e.g. try to help explain when things don’t happen as expected). The model’s logic, construction or inputs may not be robust. And even if they are, the actual outcome may (and probably will) be very different to that projected.

A note on the model

Using the actual fixture schedule, the projected goals for each match are calculated using the adjusted goals rating for each team – as follows:

Home team goals = [adj goals scored home team]/1.34 * [adj goals conceded away team]/1.34 * H

Away team goals = [adj goals scored away team]/1.34 * [adj goals conceded home team]/1.34 * A

Where H is average goals for a home team and A is average goals for an away team (for the league). Both are divided by 1.34 because adjusted goals is standardized to be average of around 1.34 per team.

The models use average home and away goals from last season’s EPL, i.e. H = 1.47 and A = 1.09. However, to date (11 December 2015), in 2015/16 season H = 1.44 and A = 1.24. Which means that so far this season the model has overestimated home advantage and underestimated goals scored.

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