Too much information!

One of the key necessities for predicting a match outcome is determining which information is relevant and which isn’t.  Nowadays there are abundant sources of football data, which can help better model the likelihood of a particular event happening. It’s certainly vastly better than 20 or 30 years ago, when the league table was pretty…

States of play and the importance of flexible tactics

Most metrics used to analyse football are accumulated over a whole match – for example, goals, shots and shots on target. Even Expected Goals, the new paradigm for football analytics, which takes multiple information (e.g. distance, angle and type of shot) to assess the goal-scoring likelihood of each chance, simply accumulates these values over the…

EPL Goal projection calculator

Explanation This simple goal projection interactive calculator projects future goals, using adjusted goals as the attack and defence rating for each team. But it’s an interactive spreadsheet, so attack and defence ratings can be amended as desired to take account of factors not fully allowed for in the ratings (which are derived from goals, shots…