This is my forecast of UK COVID-19 deaths based on the England lockdown relaxation timetable. It’s more difficult to forecast now with impact of vaccines and new variants introducing more uncertainty. The outcome is highly dependent on the success of vaccine rollout, but it’s looking positive. If vaccines are effective at reducing transmission then R…
Tag: coronavirus
A mathematical case for masks
Small changes to coronavirus infection rates make a big difference to death rates. At a time when governments across the globe consider which policy tools can best reactivate economic activity – it’s worth evaluating how even small policy tweaks can help keep the death rate down. In my blog “How to relax lockdown without a…
Building a pandemic model from scratch
Introduction The coronavirus pandemic has thrust forecasting models into the mainstream spotlight. They’re now recognised as essential tools to guide government policies that could prevent or cause many thousands of deaths. Whilst it’s reassuring that such grave political decisions are influenced by models built by experts, there’s a lack of transparency about assumptions and potential…
goal projection 