Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using the rand() random number function to generate goals for and against –…
EPL projection 8 December 2015
Adjusted goals projections I’m using my long-term adjusted goal rating (explained here) to predict final league outcomes. Below are projections for the English Premier League at 8 December 2015. A note about the model The projections are generated on a spreadsheet, stochastically simulating 5000 different league outcomes. I’ve modeled the outcome of each match using…
Adjusted Goals – creating a simple expected goals model
Adjusted Goals – creating a simple expected goals model Introduction The capture of sophisticated data from football matches has burgeoned over recent years, enabling the creation of fascinating models to estimate the quality of chances created and conceded. These “Expected Goals” models use multiple information about each chance (e.g. distance, angle and type of shot)…
Pass completion – scourge of the British manager
Pass success percentage isn’t the best stat to measure a team’s performance – but it’s a great way to quickly understand a manager’s tactics, and how they change over time. I constructed a table for all Premier League seasons from 2009/10 to 2014/15 (120 different team finishes) – in order of pass success%. The following…
Mick McCarthy’s Magic Method
In the modern football world, most match reports are adorned by a plethora of stats that may (or may not) tell us something extra about the relative performance of each team – e.g. BBC reports show shots, shots on target, possession and fouls. Specialist sites like whoscored.com and Squawka allow those of a nerdy persuasion…
goal projection 