Were Leicester’s chances really 5000/1?

Leicester City’s season-start title odds of 5000 to 1 have been liberally used by the media to illustrate the magnitude of their success. But do these represent the genuine likelihood of their achievement? Certainly, the very fact that bookies were prepared to offer this price shows that they rated the likelihood as 5000 to 1…

States of play and the importance of flexible tactics

Most metrics used to analyse football are accumulated over a whole match – for example, goals, shots and shots on target. Even Expected Goals, the new paradigm for football analytics, which takes multiple information (e.g. distance, angle and type of shot) to assess the goal-scoring likelihood of each chance, simply accumulates these values over the…