This simple goal projection interactive calculator projects future goals. The attack and defence ratings for each team are mainly based on my adjusted goals assessment method.
But it’s an interactive spreadsheet, so attack and defence ratings can be amended as desired to take account of factors not fully allowed for in the ratings (which are derived from goals, shots on target and shots over the current and previous season).
The period of projection can also be amended.
It can be used for a number of purposes, but I use it mainly for choosing which teams’ players to include in my various fantasy football teams.
As with all my projections, the purpose is to aid understanding (e.g. try to help explain when things don’t happen as expected). The model’s logic, construction or inputs may not be robust. And even if they are, the actual outcome may (and probably will) be very different to that projected.
A note on the model
Using the actual fixture schedule, the projected goals for each match are calculated using the adjusted goals rating for each team – as follows:
Home team goals = [adj goals scored home team]/1.34 * [adj goals conceded away team]/1.34 * H
Away team goals = [adj goals scored away team]/1.34 * [adj goals conceded home team]/1.34 * A
Where H is average goals for a home team and A is average goals for an away team (for the league). Both are divided by 1.34 because adjusted goals is standardized to be average of around 1.34 per team.
The models use typical home and away goals from recent EPL seasons, i.e. H = 1.53 and A = 1.17.